Even with ongoing USD recovery, it remains an absolute waiting game to trade
the buck as markets are still refusing to provide meaningful break which would
provide a decent enough risk reward to put money on, says JP Morgan.
Taking that to EUR/USD, JPM notes that the latest penetration of the first key-support at 1.3712/05 (minor 38.2%) has been initially confirmed via a decisive hourly close below1.3680.
'We'd look for additional evidence that a broader reversal has taken place via decisive breaks below 1.3650/46 (pivots) and ultimately via a break below the main T-junction at 1.3555 (38.2 % on higher scale). Above the latter, an extension up to 1.4009 (monthly trend) and to 1.4259 (76.4 %) remains possible," JPM projects.
Same for cable which has basically formed a double-top at 1.6262/58 and broken first support at 1.6147/15 (hourly neckline/last intraday low) thereafter, the risk of having launched a minimum setback to 1.5819 (int. 38.2 %) increased significantly.
"But to get the main T-zone at 1.6308/23/79 (weekly.-monthly triangle/pivot) off the radar screen it would not only take an additional break below 1.5894 (last intra-day low) but also and ultimately below 1.5819 (int. 38.2 %). To neutralize the prevailing negative bias again it would take breaks above 1.6093/1.6120-47 (38.2 %/pivot/neckl.)," JPM adds.
Taking that to EUR/USD, JPM notes that the latest penetration of the first key-support at 1.3712/05 (minor 38.2%) has been initially confirmed via a decisive hourly close below1.3680.
'We'd look for additional evidence that a broader reversal has taken place via decisive breaks below 1.3650/46 (pivots) and ultimately via a break below the main T-junction at 1.3555 (38.2 % on higher scale). Above the latter, an extension up to 1.4009 (monthly trend) and to 1.4259 (76.4 %) remains possible," JPM projects.
Same for cable which has basically formed a double-top at 1.6262/58 and broken first support at 1.6147/15 (hourly neckline/last intraday low) thereafter, the risk of having launched a minimum setback to 1.5819 (int. 38.2 %) increased significantly.
"But to get the main T-zone at 1.6308/23/79 (weekly.-monthly triangle/pivot) off the radar screen it would not only take an additional break below 1.5894 (last intra-day low) but also and ultimately below 1.5819 (int. 38.2 %). To neutralize the prevailing negative bias again it would take breaks above 1.6093/1.6120-47 (38.2 %/pivot/neckl.)," JPM adds.
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